The government has lied with their stats now for over 3 years. Biden and his merry Marxists think they can lie to us as if we are Soviet America. Yet they get caught each time in just days, but with their power over media, they have the truth buried on page 43 for newspapers or will get the news air at 4 am when no one is watching. This is now the nature of the Democrat Party. Dictatorship games are played just as badly as they do to the people in the EU and Australia, Canada and all over the West.
If we consider Tuesday’s jobs report at face value, a key measure of the labor market appears to have returned to “normal.” According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job openings in April reverted to the pre-pandemic norm of about 1.2 per person, a significant decline from more than two openings per person seen in the spring of 2022.
How “strong” is the labor market?
The US economy has seen an unemployment rate below 4% for 27 straight months, longest streak since the 1967.
The longest streak of below 4% unemployment occurred in 1951 and lasted for 35 months.
On Friday, the BLS will release labor market… pic.twitter.com/1qYRLULqtH
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 4, 2024
This normalization of job openings suggests to some that the Federal Reserve might be able to guide the labor market to a “soft landing.” However, there is contention regarding this optimistic view. In a critical analysis released the same day, Bloomberg Economics argued that the official data—and thus policymakers—might significantly overestimate the labor market’s strength. This could imply that the central bank is already behind on easing policy. As we know the truth as this is all the public face of stats. But media still go on…
Anna Wong, Bloomberg’s chief economist, highlighted this concern, stating, “Several Fed officials seem to believe the labor market is still tight, but we estimate, based on more comprehensive measures, that monthly nonfarm payrolls prints likely overstated job growth by 730,000 last year—with hiring possibly even dipping below zero in October.”
Wong pointed out that the official payroll figures fail to account for the surge in business closures and the drop in new business formations. Her team’s estimates suggest that the true pace of job growth is below 100,000 per month—substantially less than the official three-month average of 242,000. Notice how she does not specifically speak of how government jobs make up the bulk along with part time positions. The Left hides these facts.
If Wong’s calculations are accurate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics could overstate employment by more than one million jobs by the end of 2024. This discrepancy raises questions about the credibility of official data compared to Bloomberg’s analysis. Given the frequent revisions of official data over the past year, it seems plausible that Bloomberg’s economists may offer a more accurate picture. Yet they will toe the line when told to do so, we predict.
JOLTs data show the #labormarket has eased back to pre-pandemic 2018-19 levels. However, the labor markets remain remarkably strong relative to longer-term history. pic.twitter.com/OQ7cDBMM0i
— Richard Bernstein Advisors (@RBAdvisors) June 4, 2024
Should Wong’s assessment hold true, and the labor market is indeed weaker than the Fed believes, the potential for a recession by the end of the year becomes a serious concern. A weakening jobs market could lead to decreased consumer spending, which in turn could slow economic growth and precipitate a downturn. Of course, we are in a recession thanks to Biden and the policies of the Democrats. The only reason these jokers are saying ‘we could enter’ a recession is they omit the fact that after entered this recession, the Soviets in charge changed the definition of a recession. How Soviet of them!
Meanwhile, inflation remains a pressing issue for Americans. Although the rate of price growth slowed to 3.4 percent in April, the cumulative price increase since January 2021 is just under 20 percent, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures. With actual inflation at over 30 and 40% for items that the people actually need, like food, this is another way for the Left to hide the truth. But the people know, and each time they go shopping they see how Biden and the Democrats and their media are lying.
The upcoming jobs report on Friday could significantly impact market perceptions. However, the real implications may not be fully understood until months later, possibly through a government data revision or another detailed analysis from Wong’s team.
The current labor market data presents a complex picture. While some indicators suggest a return to pre-pandemic conditions, other analyses highlight underlying weaknesses that could challenge this notion. The Federal Reserve, in navigating these mixed signals, faces a delicate task. On one hand, maintaining tight policy in response to seemingly strong job data could stifle economic growth if the true state of the labor market is weaker. On the other hand, easing policy prematurely might not be warranted if inflation remains persistent and the labor market is actually resilient.
This scenario underscores the importance of accurate data in policymaking. If employment growth is indeed overstated, it implies that the labor market is not as robust as it appears, necessitating a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s approach. A weaker labor market typically translates into less consumer spending, which could slow down economic growth and potentially lead to a recession.
US Job openings year-over-year change has been negative for over 2 years.
In other words, opened vacancies in the US has declined for over 24 months straight.
In the past such a streak has ONLY OCCURRED DURING RECESSIONS.
The US labor market is only strong in the headlines. pic.twitter.com/jnQdxOJRp9
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 5, 2024
Furthermore, inflation continues to be a significant concern. Even with a slowdown in the rate of price increases, the substantial cumulative rise in prices since early 2021 indicates that inflationary pressures remain a burden for consumers. This persistent inflation, coupled with a potentially overstated employment situation, creates a challenging economic environment.
Major Points:
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported job openings in April returned to the pre-pandemic level of about 1.2 per person, down from over two per person in spring 2022.
- Bloomberg Economics criticizes official data, suggesting it significantly overestimates the strength of the labor market.
- Anna Wong, Bloomberg’s chief economist, estimates that monthly nonfarm payrolls likely overstated job growth by 730,000 last year.
- Wong’s team believes the true pace of job growth is below 100,000 per month, much lower than the official average of 242,000.
- A potentially weaker labor market and persistent inflation could lead to reduced consumer spending and a possible recession by the end of the year.
Susan Guglielmo – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News