President Trump says new negotiations with Iran will begin on Monday, a dramatic shift after threatening to hit Iran "very hard" just 24 hours earlier. The reversal came right after a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, prompting questions about whether Riyadh swayed Trump’s decision.
Our guest, Sina Azodi, Program Director of Middle East Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, argues the real driver wasn’t the phone call itself: Trump’s decision to not continue up the escalation ladder was shaped by regional pressure and the risk of the conflict spiraling out of control across the Middle East.
00:00 — Trump cancels Iran strikes after Saudi phone call
01:00 — Trump’s pattern of threats and reversals on Iran
01:55 — Did MBS change Trump’s mind: Sina Azodi responds
03:35 — Why Saudi Arabia has leverage Trump’s other allies do not
04:20 — Israel’s silence on the pause and the Netanyahu factor
05:27 — Does threatening and backing down damage US credibility
07:10 — Domestic pressure on Trump: gas prices, war fatigue, midterms
08:41 — What the Iran-US negotiations need to achieve to succeed
10:23 — OPEC output increase and Saudi Arabia’s oil incentive for peace
11:45 — Oman and Qatar as mediators vs. Saudi Arabia’s role
13:39 — Is Saudi Arabia positioning itself as a regional power broker
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