As the war between Russia and Ukraine enters its fifth winter, the prospect of peace appears more distant than ever. Instead of negotiations and de-escalation, the conflict is showing signs of intensifying on multiple fronts.
Russia has stepped up its drone attacks on Kyiv and critical infrastructure, while Ukraine is striking targets deep inside Russian territory, including around Moscow. On the battlefield, front lines have remained relatively stable, but military analysts suggest Ukrainian forces are making gains in certain sectors.
At the same time, Russia’s hybrid war against Europe is escalating. Intelligence agencies and governments across the continent are warning of increased sabotage, cyberattacks, and other attempts to undermine European security. Despite recent diplomatic contacts between German and Russian officials, there are few indications that tensions are easing.
Following strong results in Russia’s Duma elections, Vladimir Putin appears politically reinforced. Is the Kremlin preparing for a new phase of the war? What are the implications for Ukraine, Europe, NATO, and global security?
In this episode, we examine the military situation, Putin’s strategy, Western responses, and the growing risk of escalation far beyond the battlefield.
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02:00 What’s Putin’s strategy?
02:50 Stalemate in the Donbas
04:50 There are quick cycles of military innovation on both sides
06:40 Do Ukrainians want to leave because the situation is getting unbearable?
08.10 Video: Escalation in the war against Ukraine
10:00 The results of the Duma elections – are they trustworthy?
11:30 Will Putin increase taxes and mobilize again?
13:00 Russian elites want Putin to escalate the war – to end it quickly
15:30 What role can diplomacy play? Europe is back.
18:30 Is there now a window for diplomacy?
19:45 Video: Moscow’s hybrid warfare
21:20 Is Europe prepared to endure more cyberattacks from Russia?
23:00 Europe’s public wants this war to end
23:40 Russia is adopting a strategy of exhaustion
24:45 Can Ukraine hold out for another harsh winter?
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